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You may have heard the term El Ni?o mentioned more often in weather reports recently. It is an important climate phenomenon that can shape weather patterns across the globe, bringing floods, droughts, heatwaves and storms to different regions. Occurring every two to seven years, El Ni?o events can be forecast several months in advance, although their timing and intensity remain difficult to predict and their impacts can be severe.

The name El Ni?o, Spanish for ¡°little boy¡±, was first used by fishermen along the Pacific coast of South America in the 1600s. They noticed that every few years warmer ocean waters would appear, disrupting fisheries and bringing intense rainfall and storms.

Scientifically, is part of a larger climate pattern known as the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm.

Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm surface water westward across the Pacific Ocean toward Asia and Australia. During an El Ni?o event, these winds weaken. As a result, warm water shifts eastward toward the west coast of the Americas, changing atmospheric circulation and weather patterns around the world.

South America often experiences some of the strongest impacts. Coastal areas in countries such as Peru and Ecuador can see heavy rainfall, increasing the risks of flooding and landslides. At the same time, parts of the Amazon may face drought conditions that increase wildfire risk. 

But El Ni?o does not only affect the Pacific region. Its influence can extend across continents.

In North America, El Ni?o is often linked to warmer and drier winters in Canada and the northern United States, while the southern United States and parts of Mexico may experience wetter and stormier conditions. In Australia and Southeast Asia, El Ni?o frequently brings hotter temperatures, reduced rainfall and increased drought, raising the likelihood of wildfires and water shortages. 

In Africa, El Ni?o impacts are highly variable, but it is often linked to drought in parts of southern and eastern Africa, while some regions may experience wetter conditions

El Ni?o is also closely connected to La Ni?a, its cooler counterpart that is also a part of ENSO. During La Ni?a events, Pacific Ocean temperatures become cooler than average, often leading to opposite weather effects in many regions.

El Ni?o in a warming world

El Ni?o is once again in the spotlight as scientists monitor signs of its possible return. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), rising ocean temperatures indicate the potential beginning of an event during the middle part of 2026.

Understanding El Ni?o is important because it helps governments, communities and industries prepare for shifts in weather patterns that can affect food production, water supplies, health systems and infrastructure. 

In recent years, researchers have also become increasingly concerned about how it interacts with climate change. El Ni?o itself is a natural climate pattern. However, human-induced climate change is warming our atmosphere and oceans, which can intensify some of El Ni?o's impacts.

For example, when an El Ni?o event occurs during a period of already high global temperatures, it can contribute to record-breaking heat. It can increase the likelihood of heavier rainfall and flooding in some regions, while hotter conditions can worsen droughts and wildfires in others. El Ni?o years are also often associated with higher global average temperatures because additional ocean heat is transferred into the atmosphere.

Scientists are still studying exactly how climate change may influence future events. But many warn that the combination of natural climate variability and human-caused warming could lead to more extreme weather impacts worldwide.

As climate risks continue to grow, understanding phenomena like El Ni?o is becoming increasingly important ¨C not only for predicting the weather, but for helping societies prepare for an uncertain future.